Financial Markets 13/01/2026
Beacon of the markets:
The start of 2026 in global stock markets reflects positive investor sentiment. Although we continue to receive mixed messages from macroeconomic data, investors are still interpreting it with a positive bias. On the one hand, manufacturing activity has yet to fully recover; in Europe, the PMI has once again fallen well below 50 points. On the other hand, the labor market is showing signs that the situation could be less worrisome. Furthermore, the latest data on price developments in both the United States and Europe suggest that we will not see significant increases in the CPI for now, a situation that leaves sufficient room for central banks to lower interest rates again, should they deem it appropriate. In any case, as we have seen in recent years, data can suddenly change course without prior warning, leading to situations where we will see spikes in volatility across all asset classes.
The most noteworthy event of the last few days has been the United States’ intervention in Venezuela. In financial markets, the impact could be considered positive, if it has had any bearing on the rise in stock markets and bond prices, but it has certainly led to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium. This concern is reflected in the clear rise in commodity prices, especially gold and oil, which are often included in portfolios in anticipation of potential increases in uncertainty.
The result in the stock markets has been widespread gains, in many cases significant, leading several indices to reach their first highs of 2026. The first of these was the S&P 500, which closed the week with a 1.57% increase at 6,966.28 points, practically at its previous high of 6,978.34 points. The Nasdaq 100 also achieved a significant gain, closing at 25,766.26, or 2.22%, but it is still not close to its current high. In Europe, both the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Ibex 35 rose, by 2.57% and 0.89% respectively, after reaching new all-time highs of 5,999.36 and 17,738.13 points.
The debt market saw investor optimism materialize with purchases in fixed-income assets, which led to a drop in yields. The 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to a yield of 4.17%. In Europe, the corrections were more pronounced, with the Bund falling 7 basis points and the Bond 8 basis points. The Bund saw its upward movement in yields halt at the same level reached after Germany’s announcement of massive investments in infrastructure and defense, which will increase German public debt. After trading in the 2.90%-2.95% range in recent days, it closed at 2.83% on Friday. The Spanish bond yield, meanwhile, fell to 3.26%.
Alternative markets experienced significant gains, with gold rising 3.19% to close at $4,500.90/oz. Silver and platinum climbed even higher, driven by the new geopolitical landscape. Brent crude also benefited, rising 3.72% to $63/bbl. Although the situation in Venezuela could release a significant amount of crude oil into the market in the medium term, the market prioritized the fear that an escalation could create supply chain problems in the middle of winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Among the macroeconomic data, the unemployment rate fell more than analysts had anticipated on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, it corrected to 6.3%, and in the United States to 4.4%, although the employment figures released throughout the week were not particularly strong. The second noteworthy reference point is the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for US GDP. After several weeks of declines and a correction from 4.1% to 2.7%, the estimate experienced a significant jump, rising above 5%.
This week’s most relevant macroeconomic indicators are: i) in China, export and import data; ii) in Europe, industrial production figures and the release of the minutes from the last ECB meeting; and iii) in the United States, we will see the CPI, retail sales, and industrial production figures.
The quote:
And we conclude with the following quote from Hubert Humphrey Jr., an American pharmacist and politician who served as Vice President of the United States from 1965 to 1969: “Oh, my friend, it’s not what they take away that counts, but what you do with what’s left.”
Summary of the performance of major financial assets (12/1/2026) 
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This document has been prepared by Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. for the purpose of providing general information as of the date of issuance of the report and is subject to change without prior notice. Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. assumes no obligation to communicate such changes or to update the content of this document. Neither this document nor its content constitutes an offer, invitation, or solicitation to purchase or subscribe to securities or other instruments, or to make or cancel investments, nor may it serve as the basis for any contract, commitment, or decision of any kind.
The information included in this report has been obtained from public sources considered reliable, and although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information included in this document is neither uncertain nor ambiguous at the time of publication, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. assumes no responsibility for any direct or indirect loss that may result from the use of the information provided in this report. Past performance of variables may not be a good indicator of their future outcomes.