The era of medicine 3.0 and the democratization of healthcare
February 11, 2025
Topic of the week:
By Faris Hamadeh
In his book 2023 Outlive, Dr. Peter Attia defines Medicine 1.0 as the era before the scientific method, when medical practices were only marginally more advanced than primitive guesswork. Think: bloodletting and charms in the Middle Ages as a cure for bubonic plague. Good luck.
Medicine 2.0 is what emerged in the 17th century with the development of the scientific method, germ theory and randomized controlled trials. Medicine 2.0 is what we experience today when we go to the family doctor and, for most of us reading this, Medicine 2.0 is what has defined our experience of healthcare since we were born.
But despite significant advances from Medicine 1.0 to 2.0, Attia argues that the current system has reached its limits. Reflecting on his early years as a physician, he notes, “The problem is that we were treating both types of patients, trauma victims and the chronically ill, with the same basic script: our job was to keep the patient from dying, no matter what.”
In his book, Attia focuses on a specific problem. On the one hand, we are living much longer than ever before (preventive medicine) while, on the other hand, we are increasingly plagued by chronic neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s and cardiovascular diseases such as strokes. Key message: we are surviving longer than ever, but our quality of life in old age remains the same or has even worsened. This graph illustrates the message perfectly.
Life expectancy vs Healthy life expectancy in Medicine 2.0 vs Medicine 3.0
It is important to understand the limitations of Medicine 2.0 and, therefore, of today’s institutionalized healthcare system. The truth is that there is a huge gap between what family physicians have learned during their training (which in some cases might have been decades ago) and the cutting edge of medicine today. For example, most physicians have never been formally taught the role of sleep, exercise and nutrition in preventing health problems. This is truly unfortunate as recent studies have shown that these are among the absolute top determinants of our overall health status and longevity.
This is where Medicine 3.0 comes in. In essence, Medicine 3.0 is the next phase in the evolution of healthcare: this time the emphasis is on preventive, personalized and participatory medicine. As Attia explains, “The key difference between Medicine 2.0 and 3.0 has to do with how and when we apply our tactics. Typically, Medicine 2.0 intervenes only when something goes acutely wrong, such as an infection or a broken bone, with short-term solutions to the immediate problem. In medicine 3.0, our tactics must be embedded in our daily lives. We eat them, breathe them and sleep them, literally.” Medicine 3.0 is achieved through a combination of preventive healthcare (early detection and intervention), as well as precision medicine and data-driven decision making (digital health, AI and biomarkers). “In short, medicine 3.0 places much more emphasis on prevention than treatment…and views the patient as a unique individual.”
From 2.0 to 3.0
Moving from 2.0 to 3.0 means, by definition, that each person will take control of his or her own health. At first glance, this can be a bit scary. Another way of looking at it is the democratization (or decentralization) of healthcare, which perhaps sounds a bit more appealing. This process of greater responsibility on the part of individuals for their own health outcomes is now only possible because of a confluence of factors that, together, have made Medicine 3.0 viable at last.
The first pillar is education: books like Outlive, by Dr. Peter Attia, take a first principles approach to health and wellness and package cutting-edge science into digestible morsels that can be consumed (and put into practice) by anyone off the street. Similarly, the proliferation of “health and wellness influencers” like Dr. Andrew Huberman (associate professor of neurobiology at Stanford University School of Medicine) achieves the same goal, but through audio. Dr. Huberman produces a weekly podcast on a given health-related topic, from dental hygiene to how to harness dopamine to overcome procrastination. Highly recommended.
A second important component is the emergence of health devices and home diagnostic tests. One of these is the Oura ring, which continuously collects data on more than 20 biometric parameters. It is designed to look and wear like a normal ring, but measures everything: sleep patterns, cardiovascular health, body temperature and stress indicators. By collecting the user’s data, the Oura app provides personalized information and recommendations for the wearer. Clearly there is a market for this: Oura just raised $200 million at a valuation of $5.2 billion.
But the reality is that for many of us, Medicine 2.0 will continue to dominate our lives for some time to come. And it is important to note that medicine 3.0 is not a total condemnation of institutionalized medicine. For my part I certainly know that, if I break my wrist or have palpitations, the first thing I would go to would be my primary care physician, not Spotify or my bookshelf.
Resources and links:
Sin limités: Outlive, Peter Attia
Huberman Lab (en inglés) Dr. Huberman
The beacon of the markets:
February has started with some caution in the US stock markets, after a good start to the year and having a little more visibility as to what the central banks will do in the coming months, the experts have decided to analyze the main data that have been known, both at macroeconomic and corporate level. For now, there is a certain calm, awaiting new decisions from the Trump administration.
US stock markets experienced very slight changes and what could be more significant, weekly volatility as measured by the spread between the high and low price seems to be narrowing. The S&P 500 closed at 6,025.99 points down 0.24% while the Nasdaq 100 was up just 0.06% to finish at 21,491.31 points. In Europe, corporate results and falling interest rates encouraged investors, who pushed up the Euro Stoxx 50 by 0.73% and the Ibex 35 by 2.48%. For now, the DeepSeek shock has passed.
Treasury bonds experienced declines in yields. Although the economy remains strong in the US, investors see a clear possibility that interest rates will continue to fall in 2025 (moving away from the possibility of hikes), and as a result, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 bps to close the week with a yield of 4.49%. In Europe, the declines were somewhat greater, with the German Bund and Spanish Bonds dropping 10 bps and 7 bps respectively, to close with a yield of 2.36% and 3.04%.
What is a bit more puzzling is the performance of gold, which rose for another week and set a new all-time high, all in an apparently more relaxed geopolitical context than a few weeks earlier. Gold was up 1.86% to close at 2,887.60 USD/Onz, after trading at 2,910.60 USD. Brent was down 2.74% to close at 74.66 USD/b. The possibility that OPEC+ will increase its crude oil production from April onwards and the certain calm in the Middle East favored the fall of crude oil.
On the macroeconomic front, it is worth highlighting the poor PMI data in China, just above the expansion level (50) but clearly below market forecasts, a not very encouraging sign about the health of the world’s second largest economy. In Europe, the most relevant data was the CPI, which disappointed the market by coming in one tenth above expectations, as did the underlying CPI, which came in at 2.5% and 2.8% respectively. Retail sales fell by 0.2% in January, more than expected, and PMIs were mixed, but both close to expected levels.
In the US, PMIs beat expectations, especially the manufacturing PMI which came in at 51.2, the second consecutive month above 50. The unemployment rate came in at 4% against a forecast of 4.1%, all this in a week in which data related to the state of the labor market again sent mixed signals, JOLTS clearly below, ADP clearly above and the main reference, non-farm payrolls, slightly below forecast, although they were revised upwards significantly from the previous month’s figure.
In the current week we have little to expect from macroeconomic data. In Europe, we highlight the EU economic forecasts and the industrial production data for the euro zone (-0.6% expected). In the U.S., the CPI, retail sales and the industrial production index will be released, as well as Jerome Powell’s biannual congressional testimony.
The earnings season is now well underway, with 305 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings growth of 13.3% on average, compared to the 7.5% expected before the start of the earnings season. Positive surprises exceeded 76%, while negative surprises accounted for 16%.
The phrase:
And we say goodbye with the following quote from Christopher Reeve, American actor, film director and activist: “Don’t give up. Don’t give up hope. Don’t sell out“.
Summary of the performance of major financial assets (2/10/2025)
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This document has been prepared by Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. for the purpose of providing general information as of the date of issuance of the report and is subject to change without notice. Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. assumes no obligation to communicate such changes or to update the contents of this document. Neither this document nor its contents constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities or other instruments or to make or cancel investments, nor may they form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.
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