Financial Markets 10/06/2025
The first week of June closed with widespread gains in the financial markets as the main macroeconomic indicators continue to show resilience in the face of the uncertainty generated by the tariff war. Throughout the week, important data were released in both Europe and the United States, which continue to show that the former continues to improve and that the latter is not being affected despite fears of higher inflation and slower economic growth.
In Europe, we highlight better-than-estimated activity data (PMIs), although they remain in contractionary territory. In addition, the CPI corrected again and is already below the 2% barrier (1.9%), while the underlying figure stood at 2.3%, improving analysts’ forecasts. On the other hand, the revision of first quarter GDP showed higher growth at 1.5% compared to a first estimate of 1.2%, the European economy seems to be gaining traction. Finally, the ECB lowered, as expected, the interest rate by another 25 bps to leave the deposit facility at 2%. From now on, the bank is expected to analyze the results of the sharp accumulated rate cut, before tightening by an additional 25 to 50 bps in 2025.
In the United States, the PMIs rose appreciably over previous data and are moving away from the contraction zone. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, with wages continuing to grow at a high rate of 3.9%, thus allowing consumers to regain purchasing power. But above all, it is noteworthy that non-farm payrolls were once again above expectations (although the data for the previous two months were revised downward), demonstrating the strength of the US labor market. Friday’s data allowed the stock markets to rise, with the S&P 500 regaining the 6,000-point mark.
The equity market, as anticipated, reflected these good economic data with rises in the main indices. The S&P 500 gained 1.67% to close at 6,002.60 points, while technology generated a rise of 1.97% in the Nasdaq 100, which closed at 21,761.79 points, with both indices only 2% away from their annual highs. In Europe, the rises were less significant, which is reasonable, given the remarkable performance since the beginning of the year. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.14% and the Ibex 35 0.58%.
In the debt markets, the improvement in appetite for risky assets caused a slight correction in bond prices and therefore a slight rise in yields. The 10-year Treasury was up 11 bps compared to 7 bps for the Bund and 5 bps for the Bono, which closed with yields of 4.51%, 2.58% and 3.15% respectively.
Commodities “celebrated” the positive conversation between Trump and Xi with notable increases in anticipation of greater economic dynamism in the two main economies of the planet. Thus, gold rose by 0.46% to 3,330 USD/Onz (industrial metals rose more sharply) and Brent gained 6.13% to close the week at 66.63 USD/b. EUR/USD above 1.14 helped commodity prices to rise.
This week, macroeconomic references will be scarce, highlighting industrial production in Europe and CPI in the United States. Yesterday we learned that China’s CPI remained in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month (-0.1%) along with the PPI (-3.3%), whose readings have been negative since November 2022. On the other hand, both Chinese exports and imports data were below expectations and clearly lower than in previous months (+4.8% and -3.4% respectively).
Quote of the week:
And we say goodbye with the following quote from James Earl Carter Jr. American politician and humanist, and thirty-ninth president of the United States: «Like music and art, love of nature is a common language that can transcend political and social boundaries.
Summary of the performance of the main financial assets (9/6/2025)
This report does not provide personalized financial advice. It has been prepared irrespective of the particular circumstances and financial objectives of the persons receiving it.
This document has been prepared by Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. for the purpose of providing general information at the date of issue of the report and is subject to change without notice. Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. assumes no obligation to communicate such changes or to update the contents of this document. Neither this document nor its contents constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities or other instruments or to make or cancel investments, nor may they form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.
The information contained herein has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, and while reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is neither uncertain nor unequivocal at the time of publication, we do not represent that it is accurate and complete and it should not be relied upon as if it were. Portocolom Agencia de Valores S.A. assumes no responsibility for any loss, direct or indirect, that may result from the use of the information provided in this report. Past performance of variables may not be a good indicator of future performance.