Financial Markets
Wednesday, July 9, was a key date as it marked the end of the tariff moratorium. However, President Trump once again reversed his initial decision, extending the deadline to August 1 to allow more time for finalizing advanced trade negotiations. Over the weekend, Trump surprised markets with a direct threat to Europe, suggesting tariffs could rise to 30% in August—much higher than initially proposed. He also announced 30% tariffs on Mexico, 35% on Canada, and up to 50% on key products like pharmaceuticals and copper. So far, European authorities have responded cautiously to avoid escalation, but it’s clear that the U.S. negotiation strategy remains unchanged: threats as leverage. European markets opened Monday with nearly 1% losses but later recovered to close flat.
This week will bring important macroeconomic data that could influence market trends. In China, export and import figures will shed light on trade relations with the U.S., though it may be too early to see the effects of the recent deal. Also due are unemployment, Q2 GDP, and industrial production data.
In Europe, key releases include: i) industrial production, ii) the ZEW investor confidence index, and iii) final June inflation and core inflation figures. In the U.S., watch for: i) industrial production, ii) CPI data, iii) June retail sales, iv) the Fed’s Beige Book, and v) consumer confidence and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.
Financial markets saw minimal weekly changes by Friday’s close. Notably, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs during the week. The S&P 500 ended down 0.31% at 6,259.75, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.38% to 22,780.60. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.81% and the Ibex 35 gained 0.17%, closing at 5,384.75 and 13,997.10, respectively.
In fixed income, yields rose across the board. The 10-year Treasury ended at 4.42% (up 7 bps), the Bund at 2.69% (up 12 bps), and the Spanish Bono at 3.33% (up 11 bps). The Fed continues to delay rate cuts (its next meeting is July 29–30, just two days before the new tariff deadline), which may be pushing the yield curve higher and helping the USD recover some ground lost in H1.
Commodities, for their part, recorded further gains, with gold appreciating by 0.82% over the week, closing at 3,370.50 USD/oz, and Brent crude rising by 3.41%, closing at 70.63 USD/bbl.
Quote of the Week:
We close with a quote from Winston Churchill:
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
Summary of the Performance of Major Financial Assets (07/14/2025)
